Steven Van Metre

Pending

Asserted at:2024-07-05

Due date:06/30/2024

the fall in unemployment can lead to a recession according to the SOM rule if the jobless rate rises by half a percentage point or more within a year compared to its lowest point during that period. It mentions that with the June 2024 U3 rate of 4.1%, the average of the last three months being 4%, and the lowest at 3.5%, the criteria have been met, implying a recession is underway.